News, insights and analysis from the global FX markets

This is your monthly FX market round-up with the latest news, insights and analysis.

GBP

With little to no input from the Bank of England throughout October, the pound struggled to gain any tangible momentum to steer away from the low 1.20’s we have seen for the last 4 weeks. Inflation remains higher than the bank’s 2% target, something which we have said time and time again, but is slowly creeping in the right direction on the whole. The start of November has seen the Bank of England meet for the penultimate time in 2023. Rates have been held at 5.25% once again, for two consecutive months now, with Monetary Policy Committee members seeing a higher rate held over a longer period of time to support in the efforts of tackling inflation. Supporting the pound were comments made by Governor Andrew Bailey, quoted as saying it is too soon to be thinking of slashing rates as the inflation reading falls. However, the mention of a recession was quick to erase any gains, which leaves sterling continuing on the same winding path. More good news was also mentioned as the bank predict inflation to fall below Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s target of halving the headline inflation figure before the year end. Heading into Christmas the bank will meet one final time on the 14th December before seeing in the New Year. Traditionally Christmas brings with it more activity in the general economy, something which could give the country and in turn the currency a needed boost.

USD

October marks the turning of the Fed’s tone.

If we recall from September, despite not hiking, the updated Fed Dot Plot brought two pieces of good news for the USD.

It indicated another possible hike to take place before end of the year.
Compared to the June Dot Plot, the average forecast for 2024 exchange rates became significantly higher – meaning it is possible that the Fed will only lower rates by 0.5% in the whole of 2024.

However, in October, as US Government bond yield skyrocketed to a whopping 16-year high of over 5%, the need for Fed to hike again in 2023 has significantly reduced.

With no surprise, the November FOMC rate decision was to hold still. Worse than expected employment conditions mean the US economy could be at a crucial turning point which the Fed will watch closely. It is therefore unlikely that we will be seeing any action from the Fed before end of this year.

EUR

The Euro witnessed significant fluctuations in October, reflecting conflicting economic data and global risk-averse sentiments. The European Central Bank (ECB) faced challenges amid lacklustre economic conditions, making the prospects of near-term interest rate hikes uncertain. In contrast, the US economy demonstrated resilience despite some inflationary pressures, resulting in the sustained strength of the and consequently, a subdued performance for the EUR/USD.

Looking ahead to November, the outlook for a sustained bullish trend for the EUR/USD appears challenging due to the current economic conditions. The performance of the Euro may depend on a range of factors, including the European economic recovery and global market sentiment.

The strong performance of the US economy and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance are expected to maintain the USD’s strength through the end of the year. While the potential softening of US macro data could serve as a catalyst for a more favourable Euro outlook, any substantial revaluation of growth prospects in Europe is unlikely to significantly impact the cross.

Market attention in November will be drawn to the ECB President Lagarde’s speech on November 9, which could offer insights into future monetary policy decisions. Additionally, the OPEC meeting on November 26 will be closely monitored for its potential impact on oil prices and, consequently, the broader economic landscape.

AUD

In October, we saw the Australian Dollar (AUD) weaken across the board in the first half of the month as global risk sentiment turned sour due to the current Middle East conflict and concerns surrounding the outlook for the Chinese economy. This month we saw the AUD touch 2023 lows of 0.6287 thrice against the Dollar through in the first 2-weeks of October marking fresh 2023 lows at 0.6274 on 26^th October. On the other hand, AUD/NZD rose over 1.50% in the month to trade above 1.090, last seen in July 2023.

As widely anticipated, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to maintain its official cash rate at 4.10%. The new RBA Governor Michelle Bullock gave two speeches in the month; however, both were contradictory to each other and had a big impact on the AUD.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that employers added 6.7K employees in September, significantly lower than expectations, while the Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.6% against the estimates and the former release of 3.7%.

The September Monthly inflation figure climbed to 5.6% YoY from the previous reading of 5.4% and rose to 1.2% QoQ in Q3 above market forecasts of 1.1%. Moreover, the Australian retail sales figure surprised markets with a 0.9% increase in September, exceeding the expected 0.3% gain.

Looking at the upbeat inflation & retail sales numbers, the possibility of a 25-basis points rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased to 50% (as per ASX RBA rate tracker) in the upcoming meeting on November 7.

NZD

October was a disappointing month for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as it refreshed 2023 lows of 0.5768 against the Dollar. The NZD just like the AUD faced downward pressure due to the negative risk sentiment but also due to receding expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will not hike interest rates in November.

Despite a stronger-than-expected Q2 (NZ economy expanded by 0.9%), the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the interest rates on hold at 5.50% in the October monetary policy meeting. In its monetary policy statement, the central bank noted that demand growth in the economy continues to ease and higher interest rates are reducing inflationary pressure as required.

The NZD retraced further after New Zealand’s headline inflation rose to 1.8% for Q3 compared to 2.0% expected while the yearly rate decelerated to 5.6% from 6.0% in the previous quarter. As a result, the markets now expect that the RBNZ has ended the rate-hiking cycle thereby adding more selling pressure on the New Zealand Dollar.

CNH

USD-CNH retrieved back to a level last seen in mid-Sep after the disappointing US employment data. As the Fed watches the US economy closely, there will be less pressure on the Yuan exchange rate before year end.

As the need for PBOC to intervene reduces, CNH liquidity has replenished in the markets in Hongkong with CNH borrowing rates back at below 3.5%.

The current USD-CNH exchange rate around the 7.30 mark is well within the PBOC’s comfort zone.

Worth noting that as yearend approaches, Chinese exporters will be withdrawing more funds back to mainland China which will provide support for the Yuan over the coming months.

JPY

USD/JPY Inched closer to three-decade high after dovish BoJ meeting. On October 31, 2023, the Yen experienced a more than 1% drop against the Dollar and a 1.6% slide against the Euro and USD/JPY currency pair is on the verge of establishing a new three-decade high, with rates trading at 151.70. This significant surge is attributed to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent dovish policy announcement, which left the Japanese Yen (JPY) trailing behind.

Following a subtle adjustment to the BoJ’s yield curve control scheme, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda adopted a notably dovish tone. Ueda expressed concerns about the certainty of inflation reaching the BoJ’s long-term targets and the need for further progress in achieving positive price cyclicality. Despite these reservations, the BoJ revised its inflation forecasts upward, projecting Japan’s inflation to reach 2.8% for 2024, up from the previous estimate of 1.9%.

The decision to remove the 1% yield cap on daily bond purchases left the Yen vulnerable to further depreciation, prompting concerns of potential Japanese government intervention to curb sharp movements.

MYR

The Malaysian Ringgit Hit a 25-Year Low Amid Widening Rate Differential. One of the primary factors contributing to the Malaysian ringgit’s fall is the widening rate differential with the United States. The ringgit depreciated to 4.7703 per dollar in October, marking its weakest level since 1998. This drop has been exacerbated by the fact that the ringgit is now the worst-performing currency in Asia, trailing only behind the Japanese yen.

Bank Negara Malaysia’s decision to halt interest-rate hikes at 3% since July has also weighed on the Malaysian ringgit. This has led to a record discount between the local overnight policy rate and the upper bound of the US Federal Funds Rate, making it less appealing for dollar-based investors to invest in ringgit-denominated assets. While this decision may have been motivated by a desire to support the Malaysian economy, it has had unintended consequences for the country’s currency.

The ringgit’s performance has been dismal in 2023, declining almost 8% against the US dollar. In September, it fell to almost 4.8 per dollar, reaching its weakest level since January 1998. This was reminiscent of the Asian Financial Crisis, which rocked regional financial markets and led to a multi-year economic downturn. The current slump in the ringgit is an alarming sign for Malaysia, given its potential economic repercussions.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is to provide insight on the market and is not be to replied upon to be financial advice