As yesterday’s US interest rate hold decision passed without comment, aside from the obligatory tweet from President Trump on the matter, market focus fell back upon the critical Bank of England rate decision due today at 12.00 GMT.
In short, it is still absolutely anyone’s guess as to what Mark Carney and the Monetary Policy Committee will decide upon. Unusually, the Governor and his colleagues have been tight-lipped in the last week, as the chances of a rate cut fell sharply from 72% to 48% the week before.
All eyes will be on Carney in particular, as it is his last rate decision and conference before stepping down to make way for incoming Governor Andrew Bailey. As many will know, Carney has never been perceived as a Governor who has held his tongue on matters that border the political; any comments pertinent to the new majority-backed Government’s policy, no trade deal ambiguity or Brexit, in general, may draw the market’s attention.
Make no mistake: today’s decision is the most critical in Carney’s entire Governorship, and the most undecided. Swings on sterling could be more severe and sharp than even the most outlandish of predictions – midday will see the fact emerge from the rumour.
Have a great day,
Author: Joshua Haden-Jones, Senior Relationship Manager
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