Good morning,

There is not much to say for movement in the pound, as evidenced by an almost identical open against the majors this morning.

We find ourselves in a state of purgatory in the markets at the moment, with US/China trade talks meandering on with little updates since yesterday and a subdued UK market desperately outcome-dependent for the General Election on the 12th.

Markets are likely to remain under the spell of this ‘wait and see’ approach in the lead-up to the second week of December. It is in this period that the two key decisions are likely to take place; the General Election on the 12th, and an expected trade deal for US/China prior to the 15th, when Trump is scheduled to raise tariffs.

The US will be on the data radar today, with a number of releases due that are likely to provide insight into how the state of the economy is fairing towards the end of 2019.

Commencing from 13:30 GMT, the release of Core Durable Goods data will provide guidance towards the US capital investment landscape in the face of an under-pressure manufacturing sector. In addition, we have the next reading of estimates for Q3 GDP – a time of volatility in trade deals, monetary policy and recessive scares. It will be of interest how the economy is marked to have fared through this.

A slightly stronger USD as of late may find traction on positive readings this afternoon. Tomorrow will be a busy day for readings, with early morning retail sales from Spain and Sweden, EU consumer confidence and German Inflation as the mid-day filling, and Japanese inflation and employment data to finish in the evening.

More on this tomorrow.

Have a great day.

Author: Ross Hammond, Senior Corporate Account Manager