The week kicked off on a political note, with President Trump meeting one on one with Russia’s Vladimir Putin for multiple hours in Helsinki, Finland. The markets were light on macro data, so mixed U.S. retail sales moved the pairs the most.
Meeting with no real outcome
Monday’s meeting between President Trump and Vladimir Putin was highly anticipated and there was a lot of parties interested, including human rights protestors throughout Helsinki, Finland. However, besides having a meeting, there were no major outcomes of the meetings announced so far.
The meeting occurred just days after special investigator Robert Mueller indicted 12 Russian intelligence officials for 2016 election interference. President Trump, however, did not want to put the blame entirely on Russia, saying in a press conference, “I hold both countries responsible. I think the United States has been foolish.”
The outcome of the meeting may just be that it happened at all. The markets barely reacted as the event concluded. Instead, most major currency pairs were still fluctuating from mixed U.S. retail sales data.
U.K. labor headlines Tuesday
The U.K. labor report will be the main headliner on Tuesday. We’ll get a better idea of how the U.K. economy is going and if the Brexit uncertainty is weighing on the job market and wages.
The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2% for the three months ending with May. Average earnings including bonuses is also expected to hold at 2.5%. However, excluding bonuses, wages are projected to drop.
If we see a lower result on wages, we could see the pound slip lower. It’s around 1.32 midday Monday.
Overseas CPI Wednesday
The consumer price indexes for the U.K. and the Eurozone are set to be released on Wednesday with two different projections.
For the U.K., inflation is expected to rise with core CPI estimated at 2.2% growth for June compared to 2.1% the month prior. Headline CPI is expected to grow to 2.6%.
If we see U.K. wages miss on Tuesday and inflation grow on Wednesday, it could be pound negative.
For the Eurozone, inflation is expected to remain steady at 2% for the headline CPI and 1% for the core reading year over year.
Another week ends with Canada
Friday is usually the day Canada unloads a good amount of data and this week is no different.
We’ll see Canadian CPI for June – both the Bank of Canada and Statistics Canada readings – as well as retail sales for May.
After a disappointing April when sales declined, May retails sales are expected to grow.
CPI readings are also expected to increase from the previous month.