The US dollar climbing as initial jobless claims fell more than analysts had expected for the week, possibly reflecting a firmer US labor market. The stronger greenback is causing many of its peer currencies to fall in value this morning. Tomorrow brings the coveted non-farm payroll and unemployment reports for September. With optimism still running fairly strong for the US economy, a disappointing jobs report — anything well below the expected 170,000 new jobs projection — could reduce the odds for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in 2016 and send the dollar lower before the weekend.
Overseas, the pound is falling to fresh post-Brexit lows again as uncertainty over next year’s hard Brexit plans persist. Tomorrow will bring heavy data with housing prices, manufacturing/industrial production, and trade balance data for August all coming out. The results may have to be particularly strong to buck pessimism that’s been lingering around the UK and the pound.
The euro is trading lower against a rising US dollar, though the shared currency is being somewhat supported by stronger-than-expected factory order growth out of Germany. Later this morning we’ll hear comments from the European Central Bank on the Eurozone’s financial, economic, and monetary developments. Tomorrow we’ll see industrial production readings out of Germany and trade balance data from Italy. If the results signal anything less than a resilient Eurozone, the chances for more central bank stimulus could go up and therefore weaken the euro.
The Australian dollar is trading lower compared to the climbing US dollar despite last night’s positive trade balance data. Investors are waiting for tonight’s construction sector forecast. Because analysts are anticipating some pessimism from the forecast, even weaker-than-expected results could particularly hurt the Aussie dollar’s strength.
The Canadian dollar is slightly down against its rising US counterpart even with rising oil prices and as August’s building permits grew more than analysts expected. The Japanese yen continues to weaken as investors perceive the US dollar to be a safer currency tied to a relatively stronger economy.
EURUSD: The euro is falling against a rising US dollar despite Germany’s stronger-than-expected factor orders growth.
GBPUSD: The pound continues its tumble as uncertainty around next year’s hard Brexit plans persist.
AUDUSD: The Aussie dollar is trading lower against the rising greenback, perhaps as analysts are pessimistic about tonight’s construction sector forecasts.
USDCAD: The Canadian dollar is also down against the US dollar despite the continued rally in oil prices.