• US private businesses hire 246K workers in January
  • No pain no gain: UK businesses are feeling the weaker GBP
  • Trump pushes for a weaker USD
  • Brexit bill looks to pass the first vote in Parliament

An ADP survey of private payrolls beat even the rosiest bets showing that private businesses in the US added 246k new hires in January versus the consensus expectation of only 165k. The surprise increase in private sector hiring may cause analysts to think twice about their bets on Friday’s big non-farm payroll report.

After having the worst month since March last year, the USD is still precariously hanging in the balance of heightened political risks. Investors are fearful of recent comments from Trump et al.  that the US will be adopting a ‘weak dollar’ policy. If the current administration abandons the long-standing policy of non-intervention in currency markets, the shock alone would be a huge detriment to the USD. While the possibility of this coming to fruition seems remote, Trump’s first days as president have shown us an administration that throws convention to the wind and will put America first, come hell or high water.

UK manufacturing is showing the pains of a weaker pound as input costs rose to 3-year highs. Our Chief Economist Jeremy Cook delves into why a devalued pound and increased commodity costs are hurting companies in the UK.

Brexit is back on the radar. The Brexit Bill is expected to pass a vote in the lower house of parliament after two days of debate. Theresa May has her work cut out for her as various Members of Parliament (MPs) have stated clear intentions to make weighty amendments or block the bill altogether.

EURUSD:   The euro fell against the greenback as US private payrolls smashed expectations.

GBPUSD:  The pound is up as investors expect the Brexit Bill to pass a vote in the House of Commons

AUDUSD: Aussie dollar fell this morning on stronger private payrolls in the US.

JPYUSD: USD on a slow and steady climb against the yen this morning after the Bank of Japan left policy unchanged.

USDCAD: A rocky morning for USDCAD, but the surprise increase in US private payrolls keeping the dollar afloat for now.