As mentioned on Monday, the Jackson Hole Symposium starting today in Wyoming will draw the majority of market focus, as the world’s top financiers, bankers and national governors come together to discuss the key economic concerns of the day. Whilst all of this year’s speeches will certainly be dominated by the continuing fiscal response to Coronavirus; the foreign exchange markets will be shifting through the running order of speakers to get to key figures such as Jerome Powell of the Fed, or Andrew Bailey of the Bank of England. Dollar turbulence was expected throughout Powell’s speech today at 14.10 BST, as the markets digest it and look for hints at Fed policy that may be announced at their next meeting. The dollar remains one of the poorest performing majors across the month, with even the Brexit-addled pound making significant gains above its pre-Covid price at 1.3225 as of this morning.
The fact of the matter is this, dollar traders are finding themselves beset on a number of fronts: from Powell and the Fed’s with their limitless stimulus approach, rising Covid deaths and cases, a president who is gearing up to label a possible election loss a hoax and the possibility of tighter business/regulatory controls from an incoming Democrat administration. If Powell cannot look to shift some of the weak sentiment today, its hard to see where a possible USD recovery can really get started – barring a huge second wave of Covid cases elsewhere in the world perhaps.
We expect GDP figures for Q2 in the US will drop at 13.30 just before the 14.10 starting gun on Powell’s speech – as with most GDP releases globally, a sharp retraction is also expected, with some estimates around the -32.5% mark. As always, any wide deviation to the up or downside on these expectations could guide the dollar’s chances this afternoon before Powell has even made it to the podium.
Have a great day.
Author: Joshua Haden-Jones, Senior Relationship Manager
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