Good morning,

It was a fairly quiet day across the board yesterday with the US out of office for Columbus Day. There were very few data releases which kept GBPEUR trading between 1.1760 and 1.1800, GBPUSD between 1.3580 and 1.3670 and EURUSD between 1.1550 and 1.1590.

Non-farm payroll was released on Friday, though came in at 194K rather than the expected 500K, which did little to dent the dollar sentiment. Expectations are that the Fed will begin tapering stimulus, even as soon as November, whilst concerns about rising inflation in the EU dampen prospects for the euro. A few ECB members seemed to dismiss interest rate hikes in the future to get a handle on inflation, which could cause issues for the euro as the Bank of England and Fed look towards rate increases in the near future.

Today is again light on the data front, investors will look ahead to ZEW Business confidence in Germany, released at 10:00am for some fresh impetus. Brexit will also play its part this week as the EU prepares to bring forward new proposals for the Northern Ireland Protocol. The mood has somewhat soured as Unionists believe the protocol will create a trade boarder between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, undermining their position in the UK. Brexit headlines tend to sway the pound, depending on account so this will be eyed closely.

Have a great day.

Thomas Read, Senior Relationship Manager.


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