Overnight pressure on the euro as France once again revitalizes political risk in Europe. Those expecting a Macron – Le Pen showdown in the runoff presidential election have another one coming. The far-left, Communist-backed Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has risen to third in the polls. This makes the race more and more difficult to call in what could be a tight race between not two or three, but four candidates. The euro likely to remain rocky as stories develop.
Unwinding from Friday’s losses, brought on by the worst job report in almost ten years, the greenback has found some support this Monday morning. It’s a light day for data, but this only intensifies the focus on Fed Chair Janet Yellen who will speak at the University of Michigan at 4 EST. Yellen’s speech comes fresh off the heels of Vice-Chair William Dudley’s hawkish remarks on Friday. Dudley talked down investor’s fears that the Fed would halt short-term rate hikes once they start shrinking the balance sheet.
A short week for the UK ahead of the Easter break, but no shortage of data prints to watch. We are paying close attention to consumer price inflation figures on Tuesday and a speech from the Bank of England’s Governor Carney Wednesday.
Another shutdown at Libya’s largest oil field has pushed the price of Brent crude oil to just under a one-month high, taking the Canadian dollar higher with it. Both oil and CAD could remain quite volatile in the coming months, as Reuters points out the difficulties in forecasting with US shale production in the picture.
EURUSD: Euro regains losses from a shake-up in the French elections ahead of the ECB’s annual report.
GBPUSD: Sterling shaking off Friday’s losses to rebound above 1.24 on Monday morning.
AUDUSD: Aussie dollar weaker, and Barclays fears that the bear market in iron ore may signal further weakness for the commodity and would put further downward pressure on AUD.
USDCAD: CAD stronger with oil prices, but could follow domestic drivers on Wednesday with the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision and policy report.
USDJPY: Yen slightly weaker despite developments in Europe, quite domestic data leaves yen vulnerable to haven flows.