President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met in Singapore last night, signing an agreement to move forward with denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. Besides some safe-haven currencies taking a hit from the increased global outlook of peace, the markets are largely focused on economic developments this week instead. U.S. consumer price index data out this morning slightly beat expectations and all eyes are on the almost certain Fed rate increase Wednesday after the two-day FOMC meeting.
Trump-Kim summit success set aside
The President and Kim Jong Un had a successful meeting – the first of its kind between the top leaders of the United States and North Korea – and signed a document committing to a not-very-specific path forward.
Trump agreed to “security guarantees” for North Korea and Kim said he had an “unwavering commitment to complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.” There was no time frame given on when that would happen or how it would happen. The men did say more meetings would take place between the countries’ officials next week. Trump also said there would be future meetings between the two men.
The markets had limited positive reaction to the news, with U.S. Treasury yields rising and safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen and gold dipping lower as the risk-on mood increased.
USD/JPY is trading up around 110.3 after reaching as high as 110.4 earlier Tuesday.
U.S. inflation meets expectations
The dollar is getting a little help this morning from the May consumer price index, which came out meeting expectations for the core reading and slightly above for headline CPI.
The CPI year over year increased 2.8% in May, compared to estimates of 2.7% and 2.5% in April. Core CPI excluding food and energy came out at 2.2%, meeting expectations. The inflation data helps ensure tomorrow’s potential rate hike by the Fed that is already being priced in.
EUR/USD is trading around 1.179, up on some optimism from the Trump-Kim summit. The pair dipped slightly after the German ZEW economic sentiment survey fell 16 points in June.
The EUR/USD pair is waiting on the Federal Reserve’s FOMC rate decision, which will come out Wednesday afternoon after the committee’s two-day meeting, which began today. The pair will get more impetus on Thursday when the European Central Bank announces its monetary policy statement.
Brexit vote a focus after mixed U.K. jobs report
The labor report out of the United Kingdom this morning was mixed for the pound. The number of unemployment claimants unexpectedly fell, but wage growth slowed for the three months ending in April.
The number of unemployment assistant seekers dropped 7.7K in May, compared to an increase of 11.3K expected. Average earnings excluding bonuses grew 2.8% compared to expectations of 2.9%. Average earnings including bonuses also dropped 0.1% to 2.5% from 2.6%.
The pound did get a boost when Justice Minister Phillip Lee resigned over Brexit related concerns. Lee is a remainer and his resignation is said to bolster a potential rebellion over Theresa May’s current Brexit compromise and potentially escalate an effort to stay in the European Union.
The House of Commons begins voting on 15 amendments to the U.K. withdrawal bill today and through tomorrow.
The GBP/USD pair jumped to close to 1.34 early this morning on Lee’s resignation and has since fallen to 1.336