It’s a busy week for monetary policy and key data across the globe. Monday is starting off quiet as most market watchers are awaiting the bigger events from the central banks of Japan, the United States and the United Kingdom this week.
BoJ bond purchases under scrutiny
The Bank of Japan will hold its monetary policy meeting Tuesday (Monday night in the U.S.) and rates are expected to remain the same at -0.1%.
However, there has been speculation over the past week as to whether the BoJ will change its policy on equity purchases. . The bank has been criticized for having too much influence in Japan’s stock market. The bank aims to spend 6 trillion yen a year on ETFs as part of its stimulus program.
The USD/JPY pair is trading lower as the day goes on, dipping below 111.0 but staying in a narrow range.
Key EUR/USD data Tuesday
The EUR/USD pair could see some fluctuation on Tuesday after key data releases from the Eurozone and the United States.
The consumer price index for the Eurozone in July is expected to remain at 2% for the year over year measurement. On Monday, German CPI numbers met expectations of 2.1%.
We’ll also get a reading on Q2 GDP for the Eurozone, which is expected to decelerate to 2.2% growth from 2.5% the previous quarter.
The U.S. personal consumption expenditure numbers for June will then come out a couple hours later, and they are also expected to hold steady for both the headline and core readings year over year.
If we see them swaying much from what’s expected we could see the EUR/USD pair trading in relation.
First Fed meeting since Trump laments rate raises
The Federal Reserve’s FOMC will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday this week – the first meeting since President Trump spoke out publicly against the recent rate increases by the central bank.
The Federal reserve has raised rates twice this year and is expected to raise them two more times. Trump expressed dismay for the rates after all the hard work his team is putting into improving the economy.
We’ll see if the FOMC discusses the unconventional comments by the executive branch on monetary policy. Trump’s comments could cause them to shy away from two more rates this year, or it could provoke them to raise rates further to prove their independence.
BoE rate increase expected
The Bank of England will continue the theme of central bank meetings this week. However, the bank is expected to veer away from the theme of holding rates steady.
The Bank of England is expected to raise rates for the first time since November, increasing to 0.75%. While the U.K. economy has seen improvements from Q1 to Q2, it is not particular strong, but just strong enough to withstand a rate increase. The BoE had recently indicated a few more rate hikes in the next few years, so Thursday’s meeting is the first step in fulfilling that commentary.
The GBP/USD pair is trading down slightly to 1.313 after rising from 1.310 to 1.315 earlier in the day.
Nonfarm payrolls Friday
The end of the week won’t fizzle out. We’ll have the U.S. jobs report for July to look through.
Nonfarm payrolls for the month are expected to decline to 195,000 from 213,000 the previous month.
Average hourly earnings are expected to remain at 2.7% for the month. If payrolls or wages surprise, we could see the dollar gaining traction into the weekend.