We’re only halfway through Monday and this week is already changing course from what market-watchers expected as Theresa May pulled the Brexit parliament vote set for Tuesday. Besides the ongoing geopolitical disputes, there are a few key data events this week to watch.
Brexit vote delayed
The highly anticipated U.K. parliament vote on the E.U.-U.K. Brexit deal originally set for Tuesday has been delayed by Prime Minister Theresa May in an effort to avoid defeat.
May said she called off the vote because it would be rejected by a significant margin. She did not set a new date for the vote and wants to take time to address some MPs’ concerns over the Irish border backstop.
May plans to talk to E.U. leaders about the backstop later this week, but she reiterated that she is committed to the March 29 Brexit date written into law.
The pound fell significantly on the delay. The GBP/USD pair dropped to 1.253 from 1.262 earlier Monday morning. The pair started the day at 1.275.
This week will likely be volatile for the pair with the pound moving on news reports and headlines.
The U.K. will focus on data for at least a short period of time tomorrow when average earnings for the three months ending in October are reported. It’s expected wage growth will stay steady at 3% including bonuses and 3.2% excluding bonuses.
U.S. inflation data Wednesday
The U.S. consumer price index for November will be reported Wednesday morning and the CPI excluding food and energy is expected to grow from 2.1% in October to 2.2% YoY.
The headline CPI is estimated to slow to 2.2% from 2.5%.
Inflation is being watched closely, as it is usually, to indicate how the Federal Reserve should adjust interest rates. There has been more talk by the Fed and outsides about pausing rate hikes in spring of 2019.
ECB monetary meeting Thursday
The European Central Bank will hold its final monetary meeting of 2018 on Thursday.
The ECB is expected to hold interest rates at 0%, but the bank is set to cap asset purchases.
There will be interest in the bank’s monetary statement to see how issues like trade, Italy’s budget and Brexit are impacting the group’s outlook.
U.S. retail sales Friday
Despite the early Black Friday shopping this year, retail sales for the month of November are expected to slow month over month.
Retail sales are expected to grow 0.2% compared to 0.8% the month prior. The retail sales control group is estimated to grow slightly to 0.4% from 0.3%.
We’ll see how these data figures impact the greenback as we enter the weekend.