The euro is trading slightly higher as the European Central Bank announced that it would not cut interest rates as some analysts had expected. Because most of the economic data that’s come out is pre-Brexit data, the central bank is more likely to decide when hard post-Brexit data comes out in the coming months. The market is pricing in a 52% chance that the ECB will cut rates by October, especially if inflation remains stubbornly low and if Brexit is found to have damaged the Euro-zone.
The pound is slightly lower today but has recovered some, perhaps as the ECB’s non-cut this morning is calming investor fears of economic strife in Europe. Earlier this morning, the pound started down as UK retail sales data from June missed expectations somewhat.
In Japan, the yen is recovering from its multi-week slide against the dollar as Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda rejected the idea of using “helicopter money” (a more controversial alternative to quantitative easing) to combat deflation in Japan as part of a stimulus program.
EURUSD: The euro is trading higher as the ECB kept interest rates unchanged.
GBPUSD: The choppier pound is down after the UK’s retail sales missed expectations.
AUDUSD: The Aussie dollar is up slightly on little new data.
USDCAD: The Canadian dollar mostly flat with little movement in oil prices.