A prospective oil agreement to cap production continues to drive markets today, propelling the Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and the Russell 2000 to reach new all-time highs. The early morning session saw continued gains in crude oil prices, though the optimism seems to be flagging. A Nigerian delegate at OPEC was quoted regarding the plan for cutting production saying “The likelihood is that everybody will be on board by the end of today.” Gains of almost 2% have been turned to over .5% loss on the day currently as traders are wary of an agreement actually coming to fruition.
Commodities are rallying across the board, particularly in the manufacturing sector due to two different developments. First, Christopher Kent the Assistant Governor and Chief Economist of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), said that “Resource exports still have further to grow.” Secondly industrial trends data out of the U.K. came out much less negative than expected, adding to the narrative of “Brexit won’t be as bad as everyone thinks”.
The bond market has now priced in a 100% chance that the Fed will raise rates in December 2016. It could be said that the U.S. dollar had already priced in this probability, as the greenback has risen over 6% against the euro since the results of the U.S. election were tallied. This could certainly reverse slightly this week, as investors frequently take profits in high-performing currencies ahead of shortened holiday weeks.
EUR/USD: The euro is almost even on the day against the dollar, as a general risk-on attitude has largely cancelled out increased U.S. rate hike projections.
GBP/USD: Sterling has given back some gains from yesterday, as political risk is returning to the center stage. With a U.S. rate hike priced as a certainty, focus returns to the swift-approaching triggering of Article 50 and the uncertainties surrounding the process.
AUD/USD: Aussie dollar is enjoying the rise in commodities and the RBAs optimistic view for commodity exports and the long-term future of mining in the country.
USD/CAD: The loonie is swinging hither and thither as traders try to get a pulse on the negotiations ahead of the OPEC meeting.