The markets have quickly shifted from politics to data, as the Trump-Kim summit news takes a backseat and investors look ahead to the almost guaranteed U.S. interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve later today.
Major pairs stumble around ahead of Fed decision
Most of the major currency pairs are fluctuating this morning as the rate decision by the Fed later today becomes the focus.
The two-day Federal Reserve FOMC meeting ends today with the group’s interest rate decision at 2 p.m. EST and a press conference from Chairman Jerome Powell at 2:30 p.m. the dollar got a boost on news that Powell will now hold a press conference after every meeting. A .25 rate increase is almost certain.
Earlier in the day, the EUR/USD pair was down around 1.174 on worse-than-expected industrial production for the Eurozone. The pair is rising to 1.777 despite better-than-expected producer price index data out of the United States.
If the Fed raises rates today, the market reaction might be subdued since it’s largely expected. The dot plot, and whether there will be a total of three or four rate hikes this year, will really move the markets.
After the Fed decision later today, the European Central Bank’s monetary policy statement Thursday is the next big event for the EUR/USD.
USD/JPY hits two-week high
For the USD/JPY pair, the anticipation of a Fed rate hike pushed the dollar higher against the Japanese yen.
The pair spiked above 110.7 a few hours ago and trades just under 110.5.
The pullback on the pair comes as U.S. Treasury yields slide. The 10-year benchmark hovers around 2.95% after nearing 2.98% earlier.
U.K. inflation dips sterling
Worse-than-expected inflation out of the United Kingdom, pushed down the GBP/USD pair earlier today.
The May consumer price index for the U.K. grew 2.4%, compared to 2.5% expected. Core CPI met expectations of 2.1% growth.
GBP/USD fell from 1.335 to 1.332 after the release. The pair is back up around 1.335.
Upbeat PPI can’t help dollar
Despite the better-than-expected U.S. producer price index, the dollar is falling against the euro, pound, Canadian dollar and Japanese yen.
The producer price index for May grew 3.1% year over year, compared to 2.8% estimated. The core PPI increased 2.4% year over year, slightly higher than the 2.3% expected.