The pound is trending higher for a fourth consecutive day in its best run in two months as the new prime minister Theresa May prepares to be sworn in later today — an event that’s calming investors’ nerves. Ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of England meeting, analysts are split on whether or not the bank will announce more cuts. Some believe the bank has little to work with as interest rates are already low, while others still call for interest rate cuts to stave off potential harm from Brexit, which could hurt the pound’s recent strength.
After days of trading mostly flat, the euro is up slightly this morning, perhaps as investors are feeling more confident after seeing the UK’s progress on regrouping since Brexit.
Look for Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly Monetary Policy Report to come out this morning with its highly sought after forecasts on domestic and global economic growth, as well as the central bank’s corresponding interest rate decision. Most investors aren’t expecting any interest rate moves for this meeting, but a continuation of low oil prices, slow job creation, lagging exports, and recent GDP-harming wildfires in Alberta could tilt the BoC’s hand toward cutting rates again and cause headwinds for the Canadian dollar. Keep in mind that BoC Governor Stephen Poloz has surprised before with rate cuts both in September 2010 and in January 2015, so there’s always a chance for him to rock markets again.
Tonight, Australia will release its employment numbers for June as well as unemployment and participation rate data. With Australia’s interest rates still being relatively high among developed countries, analysts see the Reserve Bank of Australia as having plenty of room for fresh interest rate cuts should the unemployment rate tick higher. And while swaps traders are already pricing in a 75% chance that such reductions will happen by the end of the year, any indication of cuts coming sooner could weaken the Aussie dollar.
EURUSD: The euro is up after days of mostly flat trading.
GBPUSD: The pound is up in its longest run in two months as the new prime minister will be sworn in.
AUDUSD: The Aussie dollar is choppy as investors await employment and unemployment rate data.
USDCAD: The Canadian dollar is flat in anticipation of the Bank of Canada’s interest rate and monetary policy announcements coming out this morning.