The pound reached fresh 31-year lows last night from continued uncertainty and political turmoil roiling Britain. But overnight and into the morning, sterling has seen gains for the first time against the dollar since Friday, driven by speculation that policy makers could take steps to limit economic fall-out from Brexit. The hope lifted the euro as well, while European stocks rebounded after their tumble in the last two sessions. Meanwhile, a measure of commodity strength has snapped back from an almost four-week low, with crude seeing gains as global sentiment appears to brighten.
A gauge of the dollar against 10 major currencies fell from a one-month high yesterday, as futures seemed to indicate a fear that the next move from the Federal Reserve may be a rate cut rather than a hike. Based on Fed funds futures, the odds of a rate cut by February are at 20%, while only 9% for a rate hike. Prior to Brexit, there were 0% odds for a reduction. The release of Q1 GDP figures and the Consumer Confidence report today may have reduced influence on the USD as markets continue to be driven by Brexit-related sentiment.
The Japanese yen, which had been one of the biggest beneficiaries of global market anxiety and risk-off sentiment following the Brexit outcome last Friday, weakened against most major currencies overnight following comments from the Japanese Prime Minister that he will be monitoring currency and stock markets, which seemed to imply government intervention if the currency continued gaining.
Overall, stocks, the pound, euro, Aussie dollar and Canadian dollar are rebounding on expectations that there will be a coordinated intervention by central banks. If the confidence doesn’t bear out, we could see further declines.
EURUSD: Euro sees gains from yesterday’s low on confidence that policy makers will stem Brexit fall-out.
GBPUSD: Sterling gains for the first time since the Brexit vote on expectations of central bank support.
AUDUSD: Aussie dollar strengthens from yesterday’s dip as global sentiment becomes more hopeful.
USDCAD: Canadian loonie gains against USD as oil prices rally.