It’s set to be a busy event-risk week for the UK. The pound is on a four-day drop against the US dollar ahead of reports that are expected to show further contraction in UK’s industrial and manufacturing sectors, and in anticipation of Bank of England’s policy decision on May 12. With 20% of UK’s voters still undecided ahead of the June 23rd referendum on Brexit, campaigns are heating up and there are a number of speeches to look toward this week.
Oil is rallying just shy of $46 a barrel as a result of wildfires in western Canada that have slashed output by about 1 million barrels, and the announcement of a new Saudi Arabian oil minister, which is increasing bullish sentiment on the commodity.
After a 15% increase over the past six months, the Japanese yen has fallen after Japan’s finance minister warned Tokyo would intervene if the currency’s volatility hurt trade and the economy. The US dollar hit a 10-day high against the yen this morning after the statement. In other Asian markets, worse-than-expected Chinese trade numbers showing a decline in both imports and exports, and a sharp fall in Chinese stocks, are adding to doubts about the pace of global growth.
Analysts are growing anxious that the rise in crude oil (up 69% from its February lows), emerging markets and stocks could be linked to a weak dollar. Many are beginning to question that the relationship could go in the other direction. If the dollar strengthens, could we see a drop in global risk appetite and a market sell-off?