Following yesterday’s reversal of fortunes, the pound rebounded again this morning as the Bank of England announced it would not cut interest rates. Because analysts had priced in an 80% chance of a rate cut, the central bank’s unexpected decision sent the currency higher. That said, bank leaders are expected to ready stimulus in August to help the UK economy should the post-Brexit inflation and economic forecasts start looking dim.
The euro is also up this morning despite little new data, though the currency has been stuck in limbo for several days now with a wait-and-see approach following the Brexit vote.
The Canadian dollar is gaining after futures markets reduced the chance of a year’s-end Bank of Canada rate cut to just 16%. The BoC left interest rates unchanged at yesterday’s meeting as central bankers seemed cautiously optimistic on the economy after the country’s largest trading partner (the US) released a better-than-expected non-farm payroll report last week.
In the East, the Aussie dollar has been choppy this morning with mixed news on less-certain growth in China (Australia’s largest trading partner) and a freshly-released full-time employment showing the strongest results since last November. The strong jobs report could stave off a near-term rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Meanwhile, the yen continues its fall against the dollar in its largest weekly drop since 1999 as investors anticipated more stimulus plan details from Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Because investors have seen the yen as a “safe haven” currency in recent weeks amidst the Brexit fallout, more indication of a weaker-than-expected Japanese economy needing stimulus measures could hurt the yen further.
EURUSD: The euro is gaining this morning despite little new data.
GBPUSD: The pound is up as the BoE said it would not cut rates as economists expected.
AUDUSD: The Aussie dollar is choppy again as investors digested a better-than-expected full-time employment report and possible economic slowdown in China.
USDCAD: The Canadian dollar is up after the Bank of Canada kept rates steady and sounded somewhat optimistic on economic growth.