Last night, off the back of a strong Conservative showing in the MRP poll, the pound surged to six-month highs on the Euro and two-week highs on the dollar. The key reason behind the market reaction to the release of the MRP poll by YouGov is twofold: it was the only poll to predict a hung parliament when released in the 2017 election, and it is by far the best-funded poll, as well as the furthest reaching.
Whilst it is important to take heed of this poll, as with any prediction, it is critically important to treat it with caution; the key difference that should be highlighted, is that last year’s MRP poll was released two days before the election, this year’s has been released two weeks before the election. There is still a lot to play for in this election and as we all know, a week is a long time in politics – especially now Labour HQ have announced they will change their election strategy to refocus on the critical leave voting seats in the north.
Across the Channel at 13.00 GMT, German consumer price data is released, which will neatly be followed by speeches throughout the day from members of the European Central Bank – focus will fall on the German economy to dictate the tempo for Eurozone consumers on the run up to Christmas.
Although none would claim that it looked like the beginning of the end for the US/China trade war; most negotiators did presume that there was an end to the beginning in sight. Unfortunately, despite the recent progress made at tariff level, last night, President Trump signed a bill that sought to influence Chinese domestic policy – which has put the brakes on any fast-track solution to phase one of trade talks pre-Christmas.
Have a great day.