Good morning,
The song remains the same
Yesterday’s session was rather calmer than Friday, however the story remained the same. The market’s weary of buying the pound, even at these depressed levels, as the arguments for further weakness remain present: expectations of import price led inflation, lower availability of foreign workers, fear of a decline in foreign direct investment and a worsening of trade terms with the EU’s Single Market. Yesterday’s fall in GBP/USD was far more orderly than the declines we saw on Friday and the currency pair is still a third of a percent or so from reaching the lows we saw last week.
MPs barred from voting down Brexit plans
UK data is few and far between both today and this week, so the exchange rate will more closely follow the political rumblings in Westminster, particularly after PM Theresa May confirmed there will be no parliamentary vote taking place to pass judgement on the shape of any Brexit deal. As such, those MPs looking to protest against a hard exit of the EU may be left disappointed.
Deutsche Bank woes to keep a lid on German economic confidence
Eurozone economic and business sentiment has garnered little if any attention recently while Brexit chatter and the US election has dominated headlines. Today’s sole piece of relevant developed market data comes from Germany, where economic sentiment (a gauge of market confidence) is expected to improve after a post-EU referendum induced slump. Nonetheless, the turmoil in Deutsche Bank’s boardroom will keep a lid on German industry confidence after the bank’s CEO emerged from meeting with the US Department of Justice at the weekend without a settlement deal to end the ongoing litigation over mis-selling in the lead-up to the financial crisis in 2008. Either way, it’s unlikely today’s figures will prove to be anything more than window dressing as the markets currently have their hands full.
Time to Think Global
Today, we’re officially launching our report Thinking Global: The route to UK exporting success. The investigation, conducted by the Centre for Economics & Business Research, highlights that the UK is losing out on a potential £141.3bn – more than the combined UK Government budgets for health and defence in 2015/16 – because of the SME export gap.
The report will be launched today at THINK GLOBAL 2016, an inaugural summit hosted by World First focused on the opportunities and barriers to international trade. The event brings together a range of high-profile experts and entrepreneurs from across the business world, including a keynote address from Mark Garnier MP, Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for the Department for International Trade.
Have a great day.