Good morning,

As mentioned yesterday, sterling’s chances of more prolonged gains above the 1.2000 mark against the Euro would depend on a double-whammy of data across yesterday and today at 09:30 GMT. Retail figures for January yesterday duly obliged to rebound sales up and above their dismal Christmas numbers to allow the pound to clear the first hurdle in its path. Today at 09:30 GMT, the more closely scrutinised inflation data figures will release, paving the way for either a reversal towards 1.1900 and below or back towards 1.2050.

Technically, the speculation has already started as German manufacturing, services and inflation figures were released at 08:30 GMT – a mixed bag overall, but the positive rebound in manufacturing, in particular, is already moving the markets against sterling. The rest of the EU’s data will post at 09:00 GMT, if this follows the same trend as the German figures before them, the UK will need a gargantuan number to make up the gap.

Sandwiching the UK release will be the EU’s own inflation data, due out at 10:00 GMT. Considering the turmoil currently engulfing the European Central Bank, this could give some respite to the pound before the weekend if the British numbers don’t materialise, or a combination of ups and downs within the data. Finally, at 14.45 GMT, manufacturing, services and inflation figures will report in from the USA, offering the pound a final lifeline – or kicking – before the weekend.

Come what may, today’s releases are certainly worth discussing throughout the day as the data is released, as the impacts will not only be felt in today’s trading session but throughout next week and beyond.

Have a great weekend,

Author: Joshua Haden-Jones, Senior Relationship Manager


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