Good morning,
Having been relegated recently behind pound majors, the EURUSD pair takes back an element of focus, with German politics joining the stream of risks to follow carefully.
As we move into December, and polls on the UK General Election imply a narrowing lead for the Conservative party, market movement around the pound remains relatively limited, with a modest open above 1.29 on the USD, and 1.17 on the Euro.
The volume of downside protection has ramped up however, with the magnitude of depreciation for the pound worrying UK involved businesses and traders.
The general risk sentiment globally has continued to move more in a positive direction, with Chinese manufacturing beating the consensus, further feeding this narrative. Danske Bank believe the likelihood of a recession has retracted to around 25% likelihood, a still rather punchy number but a reduction none the less.
The US will print its Manufacturing data this afternoon, which may have a bit more weight on the EURUSD than normal under current circumstances.
Have a great day.
Ross Hammond, Senior Corporate Account Manager