Good morning,

In what is to be a busier week on the economic calendar, the UK was up first early this morning with the release of GDP figures for February. Despite the release showing the UK economy continued to grow through the second month of 2022, the gain was worse than expected. The gain was put down to growth in sectors such as tourism and travel whereas industrial production weighed heavily on the reading. Supply side issues and the increased cost of living for households are dragging on the UK economy and it is clear to see 0.1% growth for February is close to the line of a stalling economy. However, the Office for National Statistics claims the UK β€œis 1.5% above its pre-coronavirus pandemic level from February 2020”.

Across the Channel the French Presidential election has complete the first round of voting which now sees the candidates whittled down to a choice of current President Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen. The euro has gained this morning off the back of the news as the current President received the most votes of the 12 candidates. As we know the fx markets like certainty and stability. However, the final vote takes place on the 24th April where opinion poles show the deciding vote to be much closer – 51% to 49% in favour of the President.

Early tomorrow the UK releases employment data for March. GBP traders will be looking for a more solid result than the one released this morning to give the pound a much-needed boost towards the 1.20 mark against the euro and up and away from the 1.30 mark against the dollar.

Have a great day.

Author: Jack Nicholls, Senior Relationship Manager.

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