GBP: Another round before Easter arrives
This week has not been an interesting one for sterling but, given the ups and downs of the past few months, most sterling watchers will take a little bit of boredom as we head into the Easter weekend. Yesterday’s inflation figures were a slight disappointment on a month by month basis but that will do little to change the ongoing pricing of interest rate hikes or lack thereof from the Bank of England. While the Bank of England may be independent, its monetary policy is almost entirely dependent on what happens in Westminster.
Sterling has one last hurdle to clear before it can knock off for the long weekend and that is the latest round of retail sales data at 09.30 this morning. Credit card company data has shown a fall-off in spending in March and while retailers kept discounts running in January and February, shoppers are likely to have found little impetus to hit the shops given the late Easter.
With that in mind, we could easily see GBPUSD test the 1.30 level before the end of the day.
AUD and NZD: Pressure continues
Both Antipodean currencies have come in for some pressure this week and that has continued overnight. AUD was unable to hold onto gains afforded to it by a strong jobs report with traders still dialled into the belief that the Reserve Bank of Australia will have to bring interest rates lower in the coming months given the weakness in the local economy and global growth concerns.
New Zealand dollar has continued its declines from yesterday’s inflation despite market bets of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand softening overnight. We are looking for NZDUSD to trade as low as 0.6660 in the coming weeks.
EUR: Going into the weekend strong
The euro has had a good week and can sign off in fine form after a strong run of the PMI sentiment numbers. These are the preliminary PMI data readings for April and these should offer confirmation of sorts that sentiment in both the manufacturing and services sectors in various Eurozone countries is starting to turn higher.
Have a great day and a restful long weekend.