Today is fairly data quiet as the US markets, in particular, are closed for the 4th of July national holiday – complete this year with a glittering military hardware display from President Trump. As one spectator noted whilst US tanks crawled into National Mall, “If North Korea can have military displays, why can’t we?” Aside from the celebrations, the real fireworks will be kept back for the release of the US non-farm jobs data tomorrow at 13:30GMT; Trump will be hoping for a positive rebound on last month’s gargantuan miss as he seeks to convince voters that USA’s recent economic strength is linked to him, as only 38% of polled voters recognised him as the key driver. Hammering this message home will be key to Trump 2020 – fake news media or not, expect to hear it a lot.
In Europe, aside from the retail sales data due out at 10:00 GMT, the market has set its sights largely on the question of who will fill the EU’s most important upcoming vacancies: Chair of the ECB and European Commission president. While the ECB chair looks to be filled by current IMF Chair Christine Lagarde, there was significantly more squabbling over who to put forward for the EC President role. The current front runner is being touted as Ursula Von Der Leyen, Germany’s Defence Minister, who by her own admission believes in “the United States of Europe – modelled on federal states like Switzerland, Germany or the U.S.” and in an “Army of Europeans”. Whilst this may come as no surprise to those inside Europe, it seems clear that by picking a more staunchly pro-integration candidate, the EU is positioning itself firmly against further concessions with regards to the European project and, indeed, the next stages of the Brexit negotiations.
Across the Channel; the Pound continued its dismal run, briefly falling to its lowest price against the Euro all year – a feat it could easily top again before the end of the week. Whilst most of the no-deal Boris Johnson concern has been largely priced in at this point, fears continue to compress the Sterling on his ability to act should he reach number 10 – barring any last minute slip-ups or domestic arguments. Whilst Boris has made clear that under his leadership, the UK will leave the EU on the 31st of October “Do or Die”, there is growing sentiment within Parliament, especially within the Pro-EU Conservative factions, that there just are not the numbers to do this. In essence, things could get direly worse for the GBP if Johnson’s fledgeling government is immediately toppled by a vote of no confidence within his own party, triggering a general election; and thus, the possibility of delivering a Corbyn-led Labour government.
Have a great day.