Good morning,
Over yesterday’s trading period, both GBP/USD and GBP/EUR failed to bring anything new to the table, with volatility levels drying up across the board – EUR/USD failed to break out of a 9-pip range all day.
13:30 GMT marks the release of the critical US Non-Farm payroll figures, with a possible 175000 new jobs added to the employment markets. Yearly wage growth is not expected to change, holding firm at 3.0% / 3.1% – perhaps this will fire some desperately needed life back into the currency markets.
North of the border; Canada’s monthly labour report is also due at 13:30 and, after the disappointing data last month, markets quickly speculated on a rate cut and traders lost confidence in the Dollar. It is widely expected that the Bank of Canada will cut rates in 2020, meaning that today’s report will be closely monitored by the markets.
On Brexit, the Commons finally voted 330 to 231 in favour of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill and it will now pass through the House of Lords with no significant delay expected. This paves the way to the start of the 11 month transition period after 31st January, meaning that the UK will no longer be an EU member but will continue monetary contributions and follow EU rules whilst it negotiates a new trading relationship.
As mentioned in our 2020 economic outlook, China’s top negotiator, Vice Premier Liu He, will travel to Washington next week to complete the signing of the Phase 1 deal, and the global economy eagerly awaits this pen to paper.
Have a great weekend.
Author: Alistair Hutson, Private Dealing Manager
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