Good morning,

GBP: All down to services
Sterling has done little in the past 24hrs with traders more happy to focus on what is going on Italy and Washington than the back and forth of the UK economy. Yesterday’s construction data was downbeat with the survey telling us that “new order books slipped back into decline. Panel respondents blamed political and economic uncertainty, subdued retail sector conditions and fragile business confidence as key causes of weaker demand for construction projects.”

Today’s services PMI number is dramatically more important. The prices and wages measures within the survey will be closely watched to see if businesses are confident enough to charge higher prices and pass them on to customers – a positive sign for the sector and the pound.
Overnight the British Retail Consortium’s measure of retail sales ran to a four-year adjusted high in May courtesy of the warm weather.
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Tenreyo said in a speech on Monday that “while I anticipate that a few rate rises will be needed, the timing of those rate rises is an open question.” Tenreyo, who voted last month to leave rates on hold, noted she expected borrowing costs to rise gradually over the next three years.

USD: Markets betting that Trump gets beaten at the G7

The dollar is stronger this morning following a weak Monday. Investors seem to want to focus on the G7 meeting and the Federal Reserve meeting next week. Asian stock markets overnight have traded higher on decent volume which suggests that those investors are expecting the G7 meeting to see Donald Trump back down and positive news emerge from the summit.

The dollar is gaining on that this morning but the Non-Manufacturing ISM from the US could waylay this if the drops from the recent highs are continued.
In retaliation to planned tariffs, Mexican officials are expected to impose a 20% tariff on US port imports. This follows China’s tariffs on US soybeans imports that feed Chinese pigs. There’s a joke about not being able to spell ‘swine’ without ‘win’ that it’s too early in the morning to figure out.

EUR: Italian policies now more important than politics

The new Italian Prime Minister faces confidence votes in parliament today. We will be watching to see obviously how the vote goes, but also what legislation is mooted by the new administration. Of course, anything around a referendum on the membership of the EUR will have traders and investors up in arms but the path to having a vote on leaving the EUR is a long and difficult one let alone the process behind an Italian withdrawal. It is easy therefore to think that markets have slightly overpriced the risk of Italy heading for the exit.

Have a great day.
Jeremy Thomson-Cook, Chief Economist