Good morning,

GBPUSD continues to climb back above 1.30 after finding support at this key level, but the currency pair is expected to come crashing down following the release of US Retail Sales data at 13:30 which is anticipated to reflect a strong spending surge in December – 0.1% growth in November versus 0.4% growth expected in December.

The ‘Phase 1’ element of the Trade Deal which we referenced in our Tuesday blog has done little to inspire any volatility, with the markets neither disappointed or enthusiastic and perhaps reflecting a ‘buy the rumour and sell the fact’ mentality.

GBPEUR continues its sideways trading range between 1.1630 and 1.17. The ECB are releasing their Monetary Policy Meeting accounts at 12:30 GMT and, although it ranks as high impact on the economic calendar, there is unlikely to be anything outside of scope.

Tomorrow is a busy day for high impact economic data, including key China GDP figures, industrial production and retail sales. GDP is set to maintain it’s 6% year-on-year growth, with industrial production and retail sales both coming under pressure.

The UK will also take its turn to review Decembers Christmas spending habits with retail sales due at 09:30 GMT. Currently, the forecast is to see a large rebound in both month-on-month and year-on-year spending. Despite the positive forecast, this will likely kick off the day with some volatility. If you are waiting to make a transfer that involves Sterling, this is a key risk event to navigate. Please contact your account manager to put a plan in place.

Have a great day.

Author: Alistair Hutson, Private Dealing Manager


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