Good morning,
GBP: Earnings data at 09:30
We have a cluster of employment data being released at 09:30. This covers the Claimant rate, Average earnings and Unemployment rates – given the wider macro slowdown in the UK, there will be more pressure on the labour market to perform ahead of consensus. Average earnings are expected to tick higher to 3.9%, with unemployment for April also expected to run higher. GBPEUR is desperately holding onto the 1.12 handle, but a daily close below this price will add more pressure for another run lower.
USD: Fed blackout
The Fed is now entering its lockdown period ahead of their June meeting, which is widely expected to result in a rate cut during Q3/Q4.
Progress in Mexico has helped to improve the mood in the Trade War tent but, as previously mentioned, it isn’t expected to last very long. The G20 meeting in Japan has been a focal point for Trump and Xi to finally shake hands and constructively wrap up their disputes. That being said, Trump has said that he would have no choice but to deploy a further round of tariffs if Xi failed to meet with him personally at the summit.
EURUSD has now made a positive gain and breaks above 1.13. The next two weeks could present the perfect storm for Dollar weakness, having hogged most of the limelight for Q1/Q2.
Have a great day.