This week starts with a familiar focus on both US/China trade negotiations and the General Election implications on Brexit.
US/China discussions continue to move in the right direction, with compromise now becoming more frequent, and the weekend finished off with Trump’s public stamp of approval as he stated that there is a “very good chance” of a trade deal. Risk-off sentiment is prevailing, with a corresponding reaction of a weakening Japanese Yen.
Markets are trading in a tight range with volatility around the General Election yet to become a meaningful factor. Polls are indicating a wider lead for a Conservative victory in the wake of the manifestos being scrutinised, and so market jitters are relatively subdued for now. This is expected to pick up as we near the 12th of December election date, with wider fluctuations in the pound anticipated.
Looking ahead, the week is busy with data across the board likely to add support to the corresponding countries economic health sentiment and longer term outlook for 2020. These will be covered in more detail in our updates throughout the week.
The German IFO survey data this morning has “met expectations” but hasn’t particularly provided much further clarity on either the state of growth in the region or future sentiment for both Germany and the EU. Markets are beginning to warm up to a recovery setting going into 2020. Supportive data, and an accommodative Fiscal policy within the EU will be key to this narrative.
Have a great week ahead.