Good morning,

This week we start off with a lively and elevated pound, opening above 1.17 against the Euro, and mid 1.29’s on the USD. Boris Johnson has said that Conservative candidates have pledged to vote for his Brexit deal should he win the December 12th Election. With reports of the polls showing a Conservative lead widening, this is building a stronger GBP picture, as the route of least resistance towards a Withdrawal Agreement is currently seen as GBP positive against all other scenarios.

Over the weekend, the US/China discussions have been deemed as “constructive” following talks around each sides key concerns for a phase one deal. As ever, a finger on the pulse of this is necessary, however things seem to be moving in the right direction with the recent haven currencies of JPY and CHF possibly holding an overvalued status.

On the flip side, emerging market currencies, which have been treading very carefully around the trade war with an element of long term weakness, could very well see a turnaround with the scenario of a global risk subsiding.

Data is scarce today, so markets will be more focused on European Central Bank speakers, with the question of how the ECB will review its monetary policy strategy remaining a fundamental risk factor for the Euro.

Updates on the election polls will be a dominant factor in navigating the pound’s strength throughout the end of this month.

Have a great day.

Author: Ross Hammond, Senior Corporate Account Manager