Consumers throughout the world are lacking confidence at the moment. After poor figures from the UK and Europe last week it was America’s turn yesterday. The Conference Board’s measure fell to 50.4, a level not seen since 1992 and the fifth lowest reading of all time. Comments that accompanied the release stated that the ‘economy remains stuck in low gear’ but that confidence ‘may be nearing the bottom’.

 Sterling was able to take advantage of the put upon dollar in the afternoon but still stayed well within recent technical ranges. It did not seem to be phased by that morning’s British Banker’s Association terrible assessment of the mortgage market.

 Tonight sees Ben Bernanke and the Fed announce their June rate decision; the market is pricing in a 90% chance of a hold at 2% with only a 10% chance seen of a hike by 25bps. After fairly hawkish comments from Bernanke and other FOMC voters the market is looking for a few cuts by the end of the year but we will side with the consensus and anticipate a hike in August.

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 Please feel free to contact me (jeremy.cook@worldfirst.com) if you have any questions or thoughts regarding these updates or if you are interested in a particular event in the calendar. If you would like to discuss your foreign exchange requirements, please contact our:Corporate Foreign Exchange Team on 020 7801 9050 or our Private Client Currency Exchange Team on 020 7801 9080.   

Disclaimer: The above comments are only our views and should not be construed as advice. You should act using your own information and judgement. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon multiple sources the author believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute the author’s own judgement as of the date of the briefing and are subject to change without notice.Any rates given are “interbank” i.e. for amounts of £5million and thus are not indicative of rates offered by World First for smaller amounts. E&OE. Definitions of jargon/market terms can be found in our Glossary of Foreign Exchange Terms.