Risky markets continued their near-term recovery in the face of some poor data from the US consumer on Friday. US retail sales unexpectedly slipped by 1.2%. This followed assertions from Ben Bernanke that consumer spending would form a key component in strengthening the US recovery. As a result equity markets and risky currencies, the pound included, tumbled on the exchanges before bouncing back towards the end of the session. This retreat higher was helped by higher US consumer confidence and business inventories.

Although this has allowed the Asian markets to trade higher overnight and is pointing to gains for the FTSE this morning we are expecting some pressure for the pound on a political front.

George Osborne’s new fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budgetary Responsibility, is due to release a report downgrading the performance of the UK economy. The team will tell us that the growth assessments made by Alistair Darling in March are too optimistic, giving the coalition further justification for cuts to improve the deficit. David Cameron is said to have known about the figures when he warned last week that ‘The overall scale of the problem is even worse than we thought’. This is due at 10.00BST and will, in all probabilities, see the pound trickle lower.

Other than that there is very little to speak of today data wise; only EU industrial production, also at 10.00BST is of any concern.