We are holding our monthly Bank of England Webinar at 14.00BST today, if you would like to attend and haven’t received an invite please email research@worldfirst.com

Asset markets were very choppy yesterday as concern over the course of the global economy continued to be the number one focus. Inside that the main concern is of course the Eurozone and in particular those countries that are running large fiscal deficits. Portugal is one of these and some bearish news on the sovereign debt (yield rising, lack of interest in new issuance) was the market’s now daily taste of the bad stuff.

Some good news is out there however as typified by the Chinese export data that drove equity markets and other risky assets higher. Exports rose 50% compared to where they were this time last year and new loans totalled RMB630bn, roughly£63.3bn. So while the eurozone and some other economies are still slowing down the Chinese are still managing to pump out the exports at a ferocious rate; bears would say that it is unsustainable, bulls that this shows that the global downturn is starting to finally end. We will see who wins out soon; I’m not too optimistic for the bulls however. More and more Chinese data is due for publication later this week.

Today is rates day for the EU and UK. We are with the consensus in believing that both central banks will hold rates, and in the UK’s case their QE measures, at current levels. In the UK’s case Mervyn King and the other members of the MPC are not willing to rick the boat 2 weeks before a budget. Monetary policy will stay as a support for fiscal policy and the framework of the latter must be rectified before any tightening measures should be enacted. The EU’s choice is even easier; raise rates and the costs of funding those countries that are in the mire (and some who aren’t) increase. Consequently we do not expect an ECB rate rise for at least 12 months. Trichet’s speech

Apart from the 2 central bank pieces we have US trade balance at 13.30. This may be overawed however by the breaking news that BP has opened up 11% lower this morning. This takes it to its lowest level in 13 years and it is down 47% since the explosion on the Deepwater Horizon rig that started the leak and subsequent share price slide.