Foreign Exchange - UK Daily Update - Written by jeremy on Wednesday, January 27, 2010 9:03 - 0 Comments

World First Foreign Exchange 27 January 2010: It’s Growth Jim, But Not As We Wanted It

 

·         UK grows but not by much

·         0.1% against 0.4% expected signals long road to recovery.

·         Euro weak as Greece continues to look for funding

·         Australian inflation points to rate rise at next RBA meeting

·         Japanese Yen outlook downgraded to negative by S&P

All this and more is available on our blog. Click here  http://www.worldfirst.com/blog

Unless you decided to spend yesterday living under a rock you will know that the UK emerged, technically, from recession yesterday. It would be like the Brits however to leave the thinnest margin. So celebration is all well and good but this is definitely an Asda cava moment as opposed to the time to crack open the Pol Roger Cuvee Churchill; we are still deep within the economic woods.

Naturally, given that commentators were looking for 0.4%, sterling fell on the 0.1% disappointment. Looking behind the figures there is no particular sector that was exceptionally poor, everything had a hint of malaise. But as the wonks from the ONS were quick to point out this figure only represents 40% of the data and as such revisions, and potentially large ones, are expected.

While sterling fell it was able to stay within its recent trading ranges against the majors.

The euro is once again on the back foot as Greece attempts to wrangle its debt to investors. Its next target, according to the FT, is China. China obviously has the largest FX reserves in the world at some $2.4trn but it seems Greece is having trouble getting the investment and have called in bankers from Goldman Sachs to advise on the deal.

Our belief, published in November, that we would see an interest rate hike in Australia is looking extremely prescient after its inflation figures were published yesterday. Inflation rose by 0.5% in the three months to December and the market is now pricing in at least a  25bp hike at the next meeting, scheduled for this coming Tuesday.

In other news S&P downgraded their outlook on the Japanese yen yesterday from neutral to negative. This is on the view that ‘diminished fiscal flexibility’ could lead to a deflationary spiral in the land of the rising sun. The yen was strong however yesterday as investors looked for haven investments with equity markets proving to be volatile.

Today’s economic highlights come in the form of CBI Distributive Trades at 11am, US New Home Sales at 3pm and the Fed announcement at 7.15pm.

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Latest Exchange Rates At Time Of Writing

Indicative Rates

Sell

Buy

GBP/EUR

1.1480

1.1505

GBP/USD

1.6127

1.6148

EUR/USD

1.4032

1.4053

GBP/JPY

144.00

144.23

GBP/AUD

1.7983

1.8010

GBP/NZD

2.2892

2.2933

GBP/CAD

1.7200

1.7234

NZD/USD

0.7034

0.7054

GBP/ZAR

12.28

12.33

USD/ZAR

7.6057

7.6387

GBP/PLN

4.6910

4.7190

EUR/JPY

125.24

125.46

Rates are dependent on amount transacted. Please call 0207 801 9080 for a live rate quote.

 

Please feel free to contact me (jeremy.cook@worldfirst.com) if you have any questions or thoughts regarding these updates or if you are interested in a particular event in the calendar. If you would like to discuss your foreign exchange requirements, please contact our: Corporate Foreign Exchange Team on 020 7801 9050 or our Private Client Currency Exchange Team on 020 7801 9080.

To view any past or present currency blogs please click on the following link www.worldfirst.com/blog.

Disclaimer: The above comments are only our views and should not be construed as advice. You should act using your own information and judgement. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon multiple sources the author believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute the author’s own judgement as of the date of the briefing and are subject to change without notice. Any rates given are “interbank” i.e. for amounts of £5million and thus are not indicative of rates offered by World First for smaller amounts. E&OE. Definitions of jargon/market terms can be found in our Glossary of Foreign Exchange Terms.

 

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