It was a fairly slow day on FX markets yesterday as a lack of data kept pairs in their previous trading ranges. All except GBPEUR.

As we predicted 2 weeks ago, GBPEUR has broken lower through the bottom of its trend. It is currently abiding by a 3 year trend line which in the game of currency top trumps easily beats that of the 5 months or so we have seen this year. The most £ bearish of predictions we have seen over the past 2 weeks of GBPEUR’s performance for a month’s time is 1.07 with the average suggested at around 1.11. Either way, a lot of very smart people expect this to fall further.

Commodity currencies performed well yesterday as equity markets were, for the most part, bid higher. I would expect the FTSE to post a negative day today as profit takers jump out of the market and bank some gains. The Nikkei 225 in Japan is down around 0.5% at the time of writing.

The data calendar is little better today. The final figure for German GDP was released at 7.00 and has confirmed the ‘flash’ figure seen earlier in the month of 0.3%. Case-Shiller house prices at 14.00 will be interesting after last week’s surprise jump in Existing Home Sales while Richmond Fed Manufacturing PMI and Consumer Confidence from the US are due at 15.00

Thanks for all the comments on the afternoon podcast: it is available here from 5pm BST onwards.

You can also follow us live on Twitter at http://twitter.com/World_First

You Might Also Want To Read

• You cannot give them too much credit
• World First NZD/AUD Weekly Update - 29th June 2009
• World First in the press: Sunday Times 7 December 2008
• World First on SME Web - Tuesday 11 November 2008
• World First NZD/AUD Weekly Update - 29th September 2008
• World First Foreign Exchange 29/07/09 Update: Bulls finally end their run, dollar advances
• Sterling dependent on Darling
• Volatility Continues As World Waits - World First’s Morning FX Update - 26th September 2008
• World First’s Morning FX Update - 28th August 2008
• Wednesday 14th May
• Sterling On The Back Foot - World First’s Morning Update - 3rd February 2009
• Thursday 22nd May
• World First Foreign Exchange 28 August 2009 Update: GDP figures provide another test
• Friday 30th May
• World First Morning Update - 1st April 2009
• World First Currency Exchange Podcast - 1 September 2009
• World First Foreign Exchange 12 January 2010 Update: FX Markets Still In A Holding Pattern
• World First Foreign Exchange 28 January 2010: Market Close Podcast
• World First Foreign Exchange NZD / AUD Update: 10 March 2010
• World First Foreign Exchange 20 October 2009 Update: Sterling unable to break 1.10 against Euro
• World First Foreign Exchange 04 February 2010: Market Close Podcast
• World First Foreign Exchange Sterling Update - 10 August 2009 - Bank of England bombshell rocks the pound
• World First’s Morning FX Update - 8th August 2008
• World First Foreign Exchange 08 March 2010: Non-Farms Surprise Higher, Yen Gets Smacked, GBP Steady
• Inflation report Hurts the Pound - World First’s Sterling Update - 16th February
• Missiles Up and Sterling Follows - World First’s Morning Update - 6th April 2009
• World First Foreign Exchange 9 September 2009 Update: Sterling Higher As GDP Forecast To Turn Positive Soon
• World First Foreign Exchange 4 November 2009 Update: Banks Dive Lower With Sterling Volatile Before BOE
• Volatility Continues as Emerging Markets Feel the Pressure - World First’s Sterling Update - 20th October
• Shaping up for recovery - World First’s Sterling Update - 18th May 2009
• TARP is passed, HYPO hurts the Euro - World First’s Morning Update - 6th October 2008
• Chinese Growth and European Friction - World First’s Currency Exchange Morning Update - 17th April 2009
• Confidence Shattered in the US - World First’s Morning Update - 20th October
• World First Foreign Exchange 06 January 2010: Market Close Podcast
• GBP On A Knife’s Edge Against EUR - World First’s Currrency Exchange Morning Update - 9th April 2009
• World First in the press: telegraph.co.uk 19 February 2010
• World First Foreign Exchange 11 November 2009 Update: Sterling Volatile Before Inflation Report
• World First’s Weekly Sterling Update - 22nd September - What a week!
• World First Foreign Exchange 20 November 2009 Update: Pound Idles Lower
• World First Foreign Exchange 11 December 2009 Update: Bank of England unmoved
• Bank of England Minutes Due As Market Worries Over Deflation - World First’s Morning Update - 19th September 2008
• World First Foreign Exchange 14 October 2009 Update: UK CPI Falls to 5 Year Low, NZ Makes Hawkish Overtures
• World First Currency Podcast - 10 September 2009
• World First does Movember
• World First Foreign Exchange Sterling Update 16 November 2009: BoE Minutes the Big News of the Week
• Sterling bounces back a little despite last week’s poor indicators
• World First in French magazine (June 2008 issue)
• World First Foreign Exchange 10 September 2009 Update: Bank of England Preview
• World First Foreign Exchange 11 March 2010: Manufacturing the Pound’s Weakness