Foreign Exchange - UK Daily Update - Written by jeremy on Tuesday, February 9, 2010 8:50 - 0 Comments

World First Foreign Exchange 09 February 2010: Traders Increase Bets Against Euro

·         $8bn against the single currency

·         Political fear weakens sterling ahead of tomorrow’s Inflation Report

·         UK housing market data mixed.

·         Equity markets open up

All this and more is available on our blog. Click here  http://www.worldfirst.com/blog

The fears of a ‘hung’ parliament continued to linger over the pound yesterday. Sterling initially lost weight against both the euro and US dollar as well as all other major currencies before fighting back somewhat in the afternoon session.

As we have been saying for a couple of months; this volatility is only going to increase the closer that we get to the election.

The falls against the dollar have put us back to a level that a lot of analysts believe to be the long term purchasing power parity level (1.55) and therefore we should find some support for sterling around here. If that support gives however a GBPUSD starting 1.4 is definitely not out of the question.

The euro was also in the crosshairs yesterday as investors increased the level of ’short’ bets against the single currency to the largest level on record. A ‘short’ bet is one in which you make money should the price of the asset fall: about USD8bn is currently wagered on a weaker euro. The Spanish are, in particular, not happy about this and given the increase in concern over their sovereign debt in recent weeks Elena Salgado, Finance Minister, flew to London to meet bondholders.

GBP is unfortunately unlikely to take advantage of this due to the spectre of the Inflation Report on tomorrow’s horizon.  As far as data goes for today we have already had some mixed news from the UK’s housing market. RICS House Price Balance showed that while 32% of surveyors reported price rises in January as opposed to 30% in December, new instructions fell by 20%. This is probably as a result of the inclement weather we experienced in January more than anything.

Today’s other data includes German CPI (07.00), UK Visible Trade Balance (09.30) and US Wholesale Inventories (15.00)

Latest Exchange Rates At Time Of Writing

Indicative Rates

Sell

Buy

GBP/EUR

1.1369

1.1396

GBP/USD

1.5615

1.5639

EUR/USD

1.3717

1.3738

GBP/JPY

139.82

140.11

GBP/AUD

1.7910

1.7936

GBP/NZD

2.2636

2.2652

GBP/CAD

1.6694

1.6719

NZD/USD

0.6886

0.6909

GBP/ZAR

11.98

12.03

USD/ZAR

7.6691

7.7068

GBP/PLN

4.6241

4.7169

EUR/JPY

122.77

123.03

Rates are dependent on amount transacted. Please call 0207 801 9080 for a live rate quote.

Please feel free to contact me (jeremy.cook@worldfirst.com) if you have any questions or thoughts regarding these updates or if you are interested in a particular event in the calendar. If you would like to discuss your foreign exchange requirements, please contact our: Corporate Foreign Exchange Team on 020 7801 9050 or our Private Client Currency Exchange Team on 020 7801 9080.

To view any past or present currency blogs please click on the following link www.worldfirst.com/blog.

Disclaimer: The above comments are only our views and should not be construed as advice. You should act using your own information and judgement. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon multiple sources the author believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute the author’s own judgement as of the date of the briefing and are subject to change without notice. Any rates given are “interbank” i.e. for amounts of £5million and thus are not indicative of rates offered by World First for smaller amounts. E&OE. Definitions of jargon/market terms can be found in our Glossary of Foreign Exchange Terms.

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