Foreign Exchange - UK Daily Update - Written by jeremy on Thursday, March 19, 2009 8:06 - 0 Comments

The Bernanke Bombshell – World First’s Morning Update – 19th March 2009

All this and more is available on our video blog at http://uk.youtube.com/user/WorldFirstJC

 

The US dollar fell sharply yesterday as the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee unexpectedly followed the UK’s lead down the path of ‘quantative easing’. They of course left interest rates as they were.

 

The plan is to buy up $300bn of long-dated Treasury bills so as to provide liquidity into the arid market landscape. This shocked most, if not all, investors as most believed that they would wait and see as to how previous policies were performing. If we are in an ‘economic war’, as Warren Buffet said recently, then Ben Bernanke has just launched a blitzkrieg.

 

Dollar slumped hard against all currencies including sterling which has broken through the top of its recent trading range and into the 1.42s. EUR/USD moved into the 1.33s and USD/JPY fell back to the 98s. Dollar was already on the back foot when the announcement was made as US CPI came out unexpectedly higher and allowed some flow into risky assets; both the Dow Jones and the NASDAQ were higher last night and the FTSE will definitely be up at the open.

 

Sterling was banged around quite a bit yesterday and broke through the bottom of its recent trading range after UK unemployment figures showed a pretty awful picture. The Claimant Count, the amount of people on the dole, rose by 138,400 against a consensus view of 84,800. The unemployment rate held steady at 6.5% but I’m siding with the most bearish of commentators and believe that we will see 10% unemployment in the UK before these problems are over.

 

The Bank of England Minutes had no real effect on FX markets as all 9 members voted unanimously for the cut to 0.5% and also to provide £75bn for quantative easing.

 

Data today is fairly light. It is Thursday so naturally there will be an Initial Jobless Claims release which alongside the Philly Fed Manufacturing figure could see this sterling rally against dollar over by the early afternoon.

 

 

 

All this and more is available on our video blog at http://uk.youtube.com/user/WorldFirstJC

Indicative Rates

 

Sell

Buy

GBPEUR

1.0572

1.0597

GBPUSD

1.4268

1.4294

EURUSD

1.3490

1.3503

GBPJPY

136.21

136.79

GBPAUD

2.1028

2.1085

GBPNZD

2.6221

2.6296

GBPCAD

1.7722

1.7792

NZDUSD

0.5425

0.5463

GBPZAR

13.77

13.83

USDZAR

9.64

9.69

GBPPLN

4.7650

4.8000

EURJPY

128.58

129.07

Rates are dependent on amount transacted
Please call 0207 801 9080 for a live rate quote

Please feel free to contact me (jeremy.cook@worldfirst.com) if you have any questions or thoughts regarding these updates or if you are interested in a particular event in the calendar. If you would like to discuss your foreign exchange requirements, please contact our: Corporate Foreign Exchange Team on 020 7801 9050 or our Private Client Currency Exchange Team on 020 7801 9080. Disclaimer: The above comments are only our views and should not be construed as advice. You should act using your own information and judgement. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon multiple sources the author believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute the author’s own judgement as of the date of the briefing and are subject to change without notice. Any rates given are “interbank” i.e. for amounts of £5million and thus are not indicative of rates offered by World First for smaller amounts. E&OE. Definitions of jargon/market terms can be found in our Glossary of Foreign Exchange Terms.



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