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Risk appetite is a hardy thing sometimes; the world is one stage from suffering a full-blown pandemic of a fatal disease, US GDP has fallen to an annual figure of -6.1% and as we’ve been notified by the Nationwide UK house prices fell by 0.4% in April. Global stock markets are so far however making a good fist of it and the optimism is swelling behind GBP. We have broken through 1.48 against the dollar in early trade yet remain pinned by the European single currency in the low 1.11s.

We’re surprised that the euro is still strong after the German government slashed its growth forecasts to -6% for the year against an expected figure of around -2.25%. Germany’s economy is very export driven and the combination of a strong currency and falls in global demand has seen output contract violently. Angela Merkel will be hard pressed to shrug these truths off in the general elections due in September. Jobs figures from Germany released this morning have shown that unemployment is still rising; 7.6% in April vs. 7.4% in March against a consensus view of 7.5%.

Japanese output figures rose for the first time in 6 months yesterday helping risk aversion as well, the figure still represents a 34% decline from this time last year

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Please feel free to contact me (jeremy.cook@worldfirst.com) if you have any questions or thoughts regarding these updates or if you are interested in a particular event in the calendar. If you would like to discuss your foreign exchange requirements, please contact our: Corporate Foreign Exchange Team on 020 7801 9050 or our Private Client Currency Exchange Team on 020 7801 9080. Disclaimer: The above comments are only our views and should not be construed as advice. You should act using your own information and judgement. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon multiple sources the author believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute the author’s own judgement as of the date of the briefing and are subject to change without notice. Any rates given are “interbank” i.e. for amounts of £5million and thus are not indicative of rates offered by World First for smaller amounts. E&OE. Definitions of jargon/market terms can be found in our Glossary of Foreign Exchange Terms.

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