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Positive sentiment continued to influence markets of all kinds yesterday as market participants jumped on the ‘Thank God It’s All Over’ bandwagon. Indeed there are signs that the green shoots that have popped through the soil over recent weeks may be more hardy than previously although for GBP/EUR we see more risks than most in the next 72 hours.

It was a familiar story yesterday in so much that positive news on equity markets outweighed a mixed bag of fundamental data releases from the world’s economies. German ZEW business climate soared higher, posting a 7th consecutive month of positive movement, bolstering the euro against the dollar and allowing European stock markets to climb throughout their trading sessions. Such an increase, a reading of 31.1 vs. an expected 20.0, leads us to believe that European PMI releases on Thursday will be better than previously thought and could see the euro fight back against the push it has seen against sterling.

Inflation data from the UK was largely as expected although RPI fell to -1.2% the lowest since records began while CPI moved to 2.3% from 2.9%.

A risk to sterling today also exists in the form of the Bank of England’s minutes from their meeting at the beginning of the month. The last time Mervyn King was put in front of a microphone the enormity of the uncertainty surrounding the UK economy’s prospects spooked sterling; a similar response may come today at 09.30. The minutes of the Fed’s latest meeting are also due today at 19.00 BST with many forecasters expecting an upbeat tone to their findings.

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Please feel free to contact me jeremy.cook@worldfirst.com(jeremy.cook@worldfirst.com) if you have any questions or thoughts regarding these updates or if you are interested in a particular event in the calendar. If you would like to discuss your foreign exchange requirements, please contact our: Corporate Foreign Exchange on 020 7801 9050 or ourPrivate Client Currency Exchange on 020 7801 9080. Disclaimer: The above comments are only our views and should not be construed as advice. You should act using your own information and judgement. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon multiple sources the author believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute the author’s own judgement as of the date of the briefing and are subject to change without notice. Any rates given are “interbank” i.e. for amounts of £5million and thus are not indicative of rates offered by World First for smaller amounts. E&OE. Definitions of jargon/market terms can be found in our Glossary of Foreign Exchange Terms..

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