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Strong PMI figures from around the globe served to increase the belief that the recovery is coming soon with equity markets and other risky assets getting a good start to the 3rd quarter.

PMI releases in China, Sweden and UK were all better than expected and alongside decent retail sales figures from Germany and strong numbers in the Australian equivalent USD was on the back foot for most of the day.

The US was not helped by data from its own backyard as ADP employment change showed that 100k more jobs were lost in the month of June than expected. That holds a Damocles-esque sword over Non-Farm Payrolls due at 13.30 today with expectations varying from falls of 345k to 495k. Nobody knows where this is going and and we expect markets to be fairly stagnant before hand.

indeed, 13.30 will be a time of great volatility as the European Central Bank’s post decision press conference will start at the same time. As far as the actual decision goes we are with the consensus of a hold in interest rates and possible further EUR strength as the details of the €442 bln of loans made to European banks last week are picked over and the mark looks forward to the covered bond purchase plan.

Other data published today includes Construction PMI from the UK which we hope will push higher and bolster sterling; that’s due at 09.30. European Unemployment is the final major piece of data which we believe will increase to close to 10% unemployment across the channel.

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