AUD
The AUD was given the inside track leading into last week and it failed to disappoint starting the week at the highs for the year with further growth ensuing throughout the week. The week started with the G20 summit which featured heavily over the weekend with a consensus to continue fiscal stimulus, whilst ANZ Job Ads and Business Confidence were both better than expected. These bullish figures coincided with a rally by oil and metals as crude oil surpassed 71USD a barrel with the commodity linked currency showing further strength.

This prompted further speculation about pressure on the RBA to increase rates, however this was curbed by Retails Sales dropping 1% from June and Home Loan approvals falling 2%, which also added weight to continued fiscal stimulus. The AUD weakened, however still finished strongly due to a rise of 37% for energy exports and strong economic data from China, Australia’s largest export market.

The week ahead in Australia
Tuesday 15th – Dwelling Starts (2Q), RBA Meeting’s Minutes.
Wednesday 16th – Westpac Leading Index (Mom) (Aug).
Thursday 17th  – RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (Aug)

AUDUSD
The AUD gained a further cent against the USD over the week. The AUD started last week in strong territory at 0.8520, and continued to peak until it reached.8645 midweek, slumping to 0.8545 on Thursday afternoon only to recover to close the week just shy of 0.8630.

The week ahead in the US:
Tuesday 15th – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep), PPI, PPI ex Food & Energy, Retail Sales, Retail Sales ex Autos, Business Inventories, ABC/Washinton Post Consumer Confidence.
Wednesday 16th – MBA Mortgage Applications, CPI, CPI Ex Food & Energy, Current Account (Q2), Net Long-term TIC Flows, Total Net TIC Flows, Capacity Utilisation, Industrial Production, NAHB Housing Market Index.
Thursday 17th – Continuing Jobless Claims, Housing Starts, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey.

AUDGBP
The pairing showed continued strength to peak, early on Wednesday morning at 0.5230, only to lose ground by Thursday evening where it slumped to 0.5145 only to see a slight recovery and close the week at 0.5162.

The week ahead in the UK:
Monday 14th – RICS House Price Balance
Tuesday 15th – Labor Costs, ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment, European Commission’s Economic Growth Forecasts.
Wednesday 16th – CPI
Thursday 17th – Construction Output, Trade Balance
Friday 18th – Current Account, PPI (Germany).

AUDEUR
The currency pairing started the week at 0.5954 on Tuesday afternoon at 0.5970 from where there was a slump only to close the week slightly higher than the 0.5900 level.

The week ahead in the Eurozone:
Monday 14th  – Employment Change, Industrial Production
Tuesday 15th – Germany Trade Balance, Industrial Production
Wednesday 9th – Germany Consumer Price Index
Thursday 10th  – Germany Wholesale Price Index
Friday 11th  – ECB Monthly Report

NZD
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand retained its soft easing bias on Thursday last week by keeping the official cash rate in New Zealand constant at 2.5 percent.

In other local data last week seasonally adjusted wholesale trade sales fell 0.9 percent, following a 5.8 percent decrease in Q1.  Residential construction contracted 6.5 percent, while non-residential construction fell 2.5 percent.  Electronic card transactions (ECT) for August showed that total retail ECT sales rose 0.2 percent, while core retail ECT sales rose 0.1 percent.  The terms of trade fell by 9.0 percent, led by an 11.6 percent fall in export prices.  Export volumes rose 7.0 percent, while import volumes fell 1.9 percent.  Food prices for August fell 0.9 percent, taking annual growth to 4.6 percent.  Finally, REINZ house sales for August showed that seasonally adjusted house sales fell 1.9 percent.  The median price rose to $346,750, to be up 5.1 percent on a year ago.  The median days to sell fell to 33 days.

June quarter manufacturing data is the main local release this week.  Following some large falls in recent quarters, manufacturing activity is expected to record positive growth, albeit off depressed levels.

The week ahead in NZ:
Monday 14th – Retail Sales (Jul) mom
Tuesday 15th – Manufacturing Activity (Q2), Non Resident Bond Holdings (Aug)

AUDNZD
AUDNZD started the week at 1.2364 and peaked on Wednesday morning at 1.2395 from where there was a continued weakness in the pairing, finishing the week at 1.2240.

GBPNZD
GBPNZD started the week at 2.3791 and remained relatively stagnant until finding its high early Friday at 2.3856, only to fall again and finish the week at 2.3679.

EURNZD
EURNZD started the week at 2.0754 and strengthened until Thursday afternoon where it finished at 2.0944 however weakened to close the week at 2.0705.

NZDUSD
The NZD performed consistently well against the USD throughout the week, starting at 0.6886 and closing just shy of the high for the week at 0.7030.