July, 2012
Foreign Exchange - UK Daily Update - Tuesday, July 31, 2012 7:47 - 0 Comments
World First Morning Update 31st July: EU confidence slips further ahead of US measure
Yesterday’s markets were typical of the idle days of summer with volume particularly low and most traders more keen to catch up on the goings on at the Olympic Games than on their dealing screens. Liquidity will be low through the next couple of weeks but with the event risk towards the end of the week we cannot say that all days will be as quiet as yesterday.
The general slip lower in the economic data from the world’s leading economies continued apace however, showing that for all the bread and circuses going on in East London the global picture remains quite scary.
Confidence in the Eurozone from consumers remained at levels not seen since 2009, while members of the industrial and services sectors fell to record lows in July. The reasons are very clear for all to see and are little different from what your average man or woman are going through in the UK; cuts to government services, inflation eroding wages and a general feeling that the worst could be to come in Europe.
The money supply in the UK continued to shrink in June as well, meaning that the growth of credit cannot be counted upon to sustain the economy here in the UK. This is in part down to banks’ fears over the Eurozone crisis but also an apparent lack of demand for borrowing. Similar trends could be seen in the UK mortgage approvals figure that showed new house purchase numbers slipping from over 50k in May to 44k in June.
Markets this morning are in a slightly upbeat mood to start the session. This is still as a result of the hope and expectation that the various central banks that are due to give their latest monetary policy to the market this week will lean on the side of stimulus. As we said yesterday, we think the Fed and Bank of England will disappoint on this aspect and the key will be the ECB on Thursday.
The poor data from the Eurozone is likely to continue this morning with unemployment from Germany, Italy and the Eurozone as a whole expected to show fresh pressures in the continental jobs market. Eurozone unemployment as a whole is expected to chip higher to 11.2%, which would represent a fresh euro-area high.
US data comes in the form of consumer confidence which may start to show cracks soon as the European crisis continues to weigh on wider US economic performance. We saw in last week’s Fed Beige Book that the Euro crisis is now starting to hurt US businesses and this will have an effect on their employees’ habits as well.
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Latest exchange rates at time of writing
|
Indicative Rates |
Sell |
Buy |
|
GBPEUR |
1.2780 |
1.2810 |
|
GBPUSD |
1.5692 |
1.5739 |
|
EURUSD |
1.2263 |
1.2286 |
|
GBPJPY |
122.73 |
123.01 |
|
GBPAUD |
1.4928 |
1.4955 |
|
GBPNZD |
1.9392 |
1.9419 |
|
GBPCAD |
1.5710 |
1.5738 |
|
NZDUSD |
0.8083 |
0.8106 |
|
GBPZAR |
12.88 |
12.93 |
|
USDZAR |
8.1925 |
8.2331 |
|
GBPPLN |
5.2424 |
5.2751 |
|
EURJPY |
95.94 |
96.21 |
|
Please note these rates are “interbank” rates ie they indicate where the market is currently trading and are not indicative of the rates offered by World First. Rates are dependent on amount transacted. It is important to remember that foreign exchange rates fluctuate all the time. The rate you will receive will depend on the amount and currency you require. Please call 0800 783 6022 or +44 20 7801 9080 for a live quote or login in to your Online Account here. |
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- World First Morning Update 25th July: UK GDP set to slip further as Europe crumbles
- World First Morning Update 24th July: Moody’s cuts Germany outlook, market shrugs
- World First Morning Update 23rd July: Spanish yields head higher as regions squeal for bailout
- World First Morning Update 20th July: Markets keep ranges despite Spanish auction shocker
- World First Morning Update 19th July: Dollar slips on QE belief while Spain gets ready for auction
- World First Morning Update 18th July: Bernanke fails to confirm or deny more assets
- World First Morning Update 17th July: Pressure mounts on the FED to follow suit and ease monetary policy
- World First Morning Update 16th July: Italian resilience overcomes Moody’s downgrade
- World First Morning Update 13th July: USD still King of the Castle
- World First Morning Update 12th July: Markets drift following non-committal Fed
- World First Morning Update 11th July: Minutes unlikely to suggest imminent Fed QE
- World First Morning Update 10th July: Terms agreed for Spanish Banks
- World First Morning Update 9th July: Payrolls bring the euro to multi-year lows
- World First Morning Update 6th July: Central Banks co-ordinate Monetary Offensive
- World First Morning Update 5th July: Looser but how loose? Central banks in focus finally
- As the US celebrates 4th July, the dollar continues to dominate
- World First Morning Update 4th July: Market prepared to wait on central banks
- World First Morning Update 3rd July: Manufacturing calls for central bank easing
- World First Morning Update 2nd July: PMI data to halt European rally
